Serbia election: what happens next, and who could govern
The Serbia election pits Vučić against a student-backed list. How seats are won, the deadlines to form a government and the presidential vote due by December.
Why it matters
The result decides whether Aleksandar Vučić, in power since 2014, keeps control as prime minister or loses it to a movement born from the Novi Sad disaster. Serbia is a candidate to join the EU while keeping close ties with Russia and China.
By late morning on Sunday, Serbians were voting at almost twice the pace of the last election.
Turnout in Serbia’s early parliamentary election on 25 October 2026 reached 27.3% by 11:00, against 15.1% at the same point in 2023, according to monitors CeSID and Ipsos. The vote pits Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling camp against a list backed by the student protest movement.
Polls closed at 20:00 local time (19:00 GMT), and first results were expected about two hours later. Election night will not settle who governs. Serbia’s constitution and election law set a chain of deadlines before a new government can take office, and a separate presidential election is due by 27 December.
Quick answer: A list, or a group of lists, needs 126 of the 250 seats to elect a government. Official preliminary results are due within 24 hours, final results take days longer, and parliament must then meet within 30 days. If no government is elected within 90 days of that first sitting, Serbia votes again. A presidential election must also be held by 27 December.
Why was the Serbia election called early?
The next regular parliamentary vote was not due until late 2027. Vučić announced the early election on 8 September and dissolved parliament the next day, picking 25 October.
Early votes are routine under his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Of the five parliamentary elections since it took power in 2012, four were called early, the last in December 2023. This one is different because the main challenger is not a party at all. It is a movement that began in lecture halls after a disaster in Novi Sad, and it has spent well over a year demanding exactly this vote.
Vučić, who has led Serbia as prime minister and then president since 2014, is barred by the constitution from a third presidential term. On 27 September he resigned as president, more than seven months early, to lead his party’s list. If his camp wins a majority, parliament is expected to elect him prime minister, the Associated Press reported.
From a station canopy to a national election
- 1 Nov 2024: The concrete canopy at the renovated railway station in Novi Sad collapses, killing 16 people. Students blame corruption in the renovation and start blockading their faculties.
- Late Jan 2025: Prime Minister Miloš Vučević resigns a day after tens of thousands block a main junction in Belgrade.
- 15 Mar 2025: Hundreds of thousands of people march in Belgrade.
- May 2025: With their original demands still unmet, students begin calling for an early parliamentary election.
- 9 Sep 2026: Vučić dissolves parliament and calls the election for 25 October.
- 14 Sep 2026: Students file the “Student List – Students Win” with the Republic Electoral Commission (RIK).
- 27 Sep 2026: Vučić resigns as president. Parliament speaker Ana Brnabić becomes acting president.
Who is on the ballot?
Eighteen lists are running. Most opposition parties stood aside or endorsed the student list, and one opposition coalition, People’s Choice, withdrew its own list to back it. That turned a crowded ballot into what is, in practice, a two-way contest.
| List | Led by | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia | Aleksandar Vučić (SNS) | Ruling camp; Vučić is its candidate for prime minister |
| Student List – Students Win | Ilija Srdanović (top of list) | Backed by the protest movement and most opposition parties |
| Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability | Ivica Dačić (SPS) | Socialists, junior partner in the outgoing government |
| European Serbia | Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš | Pro-European opposition |
| Authentic Right | Miloš Jovanović | Nationalist opposition |
Source: Republic Electoral Commission list of 8 October 2026; AP; Reuters.
The student list has 250 candidates, mostly unknown to voters, including professors, actors and farmers. It is headed by cardiologist Ilija Srdanović, but the students have said that does not mean he would become prime minister.
Corruption, “foreign agents” and the economy: what each side argues
The students campaign on fighting corruption, media freedom and education reform. They reject Vučić’s claims that they are financed from abroad. Critics, Reuters reported, point out that the movement has said little about EU membership and Kosovo, and that it has ruled out sanctions on Russia.
Vučić points to a record of economic growth and falling unemployment. He accuses the protest movement of trying to harm the country and has said foreign agents in Croatia and Montenegro fund it, a claim the students deny and for which he has offered no evidence, according to AP. At his final rally he said: “We stood against those who wanted to destroy Serbia.” The government denies the corruption allegations made against it, and denies critics’ claims that it has silenced the media.
After voting on Sunday, Vučić said: “If we lose we will acknowledge the will of the electorate.”
Polls before the vote disagreed. A survey by New Serbian Political Thought (NSPM) published on 20 October put the student list on 44.5% and Vučić’s list on 42.7%. A Factor Plus poll in September had the ruling camp more than 11 points ahead.
How votes become seats, and why 47% can be a majority
All 250 members of the National Assembly are elected from one nationwide constituency, using closed lists. Voters pick a list, not a candidate, and seats go to candidates in the order the list sets.
The Law on the Election of Members of Parliament gives the formula. Article 129 divides each qualifying list’s votes by every number from 1 to 250 and hands out seats to the 250 largest results, a method known as D’Hondt. Article 128 sets the threshold at 3% of the voters who voted. That wording matters: the bar is measured against everyone who cast a ballot, including spoiled ones, not only valid votes. With about 6.45 million registered voters, a turnout like 2023’s 59% would put the bar at roughly 114,000 votes.
Minority parties get two breaks under Article 140. They can win seats below 3%, and if they do fall below it, their results are increased by 35% when seats are shared out.
Every vote cast for a list that misses the threshold is lost, so the lists that clear it share all 250 seats between them. The 2023 election shows how far that can stretch: the SNS-led list took about 47% of votes cast and won 129 seats, a majority of its own. A strong showing by small lists that fall just short of 3% makes the same thing more likely this time, for whichever side leads.
What happens after the polls close?
- Preliminary results: The RIK must set preliminary results for all processed polling stations within 24 hours of polls closing, under the election law.
- Challenges: Within 48 hours, an opposition list with more than 2% in the preliminary count (1% for a minority list) can ask for a sample check of polling-station records at up to 5% of stations in an area.
- Final results: Local commissions have 96 hours to send their summaries, and the RIK then has another 96 hours to publish the full result, which can be challenged within 72 hours.
- First sitting: Under Article 101 of the constitution, the new parliament must meet no later than 30 days after the final results are declared.
- Nomination: The president, after considering the views of the elected lists, proposes a candidate for prime minister (Article 127).
- Vote: The government is elected if a majority of all 250 members, at least 126, votes for it.
- Deadline: If no government is elected within 90 days of the first sitting, parliament is dissolved and Serbia votes again (Article 109).
Who nominates the prime minister, and why the calendar matters
Step five hides an unusual feature of this election. The person who nominates the next prime minister is, for now, Ana Brnabić, a former prime minister from Vučić’s party, serving as acting president because Vučić resigned.
Article 120 lets the parliament speaker stand in for no more than three months, which is why a presidential election must be held by 27 December. No date had been set by election day, and Vučić cannot run. Run the calendar forward. If the final results are declared in early November, parliament could meet as late as early December, and coalition talks after an inconclusive result could easily run past Christmas. A new president, elected by late December, could end up making the nomination instead.
That makes the two votes more connected than they look. Whoever wins the presidency inherits the power to choose which candidate goes to parliament first, and, as the presidency itself describes the role, the obligation to propose “the candidate who can ensure election of Government.” In a hung parliament, that judgment call could shape the outcome.
Who could become prime minister?
If Vučić’s camp can command 126 votes, alone or with partners, he is the expected choice. Moving from the presidency to the government would put him in charge of national policy, since the president’s powers under Article 112 are narrower: representing the country, promulgating laws, proposing the prime minister and commanding the army.
If the student list wins, it has not named a candidate. The students have said they do not want a new leader who could become the center of a personality cult, the independent Russian-language outlet Meduza reported. The consultancy Teneo said a student-led government would pursue broad reforms but warned that “strong bureaucratic resistance could generate short-term institutional instability,” according to Reuters.
If neither side reaches 126, the smaller lists decide. Dačić’s Socialists sit in the outgoing SNS-led cabinet, as does at least one party representing an ethnic minority. European Serbia, a pro-EU opposition list, runs separately from the students but also opposes Vučić.
Serbians have seen a ruling camp fall to a street movement before. In October 2000, Slobodan Milošević gave way after mass protests over a disputed vote. Meduza’s pre-election analysis raised that precedent as one scenario if the result is close and contested.
Watch for: The RIK’s preliminary result within 24 hours, any opposition requests for sample checks within 48 hours, and reports from the monitors CRTA and CeSID, which flagged incidents involving the voter roll and the secrecy of the vote during the day. The number to keep in mind is 126: no government takes office without it.
